Brazil

4 Oct; 25 Oct if needed · President, Chamber and Senate

● Global significance

Brazil is a federal country — see state breakdown →

Facts

Latin America’s largest democracy and economy: the result affects climate policy, commodities, BRICS politics and relations with Washington and Beijing.

Date status: Confirmed

Category: National (direct)

A country's own general, parliamentary or presidential election.

Direct vote — citizens vote directly for this position.

Last checked: 2026-09-01

Sources

Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/8/15/lula-holds-slim-lead-over-flavio-bolsonaro-ahead-of-brazil-election
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Brazilian_general_election

Forecasts or Results

AS/COA Poll Tracker (Quaest poll) · 2026-08-15
Lula 43% – Flávio Bolsonaro 40% (simulated runoff)
Poll average · Source
Polymarket · 2026-08-15
~12% probability of an outright first-round win
Prediction market · Source

Election observation

No observer assessment recorded yet.

Election history

Past elections, turnout and electoral system details for Brazil, from IFES ElectionGuide.

View on ElectionGuide.org →